Latest Washington Post-ABC poll in Iowa showing Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) in second place for the Democratic presidential nomination. Her rival, Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) led in the poll with 30 percent, Hillary trailed at 26 percent and former Sen. John Edwards (N.C.) was in third at 22 percent. New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, auditioning for vice president, was fourth at 11 percent. This is the first primary or caucus poll nationwide or in any state in the nation this entire year that shows Hillary in second place! Here’s the really bad news for Hillary:• Obama is running even with Hillary among Iowa women. With Oprah in Iowa, expect Obama’s numbers amoung women to increase.• 55 percent of Iowa Democrats want change , and Obama leads with 43 percent to Edwards’s 25 and Hillary’s 17 percent. I expect that between now and the caucus, this percentage will reach 65% with Obama taking half.• Half of Hillary’s voters have not attended a previous caucus, versus 43 percent of Obama’s and 24 percent of Edwards’s. The fewer first time caucus goers show up, because of weather, driving distance, schedule conflicts, the better for Obama. Obama’s numbers in Iowa are heading up, and Hillary’s numbers are heading down. Enough to put her in third place? Its possible. Watch closely, if Hillary begins to taper off on her time in Iowa, or personal appearances, and begins to focus on New Hampshire, it’s a sure sign she has written Iowa off.
Posted on November 23, 2007 by politicalnighttrain