Political Night Train has been charting a number of the state democratic polls and thinks it sees a very interesting trend. As the number of times Hillary Clinton and her campaign have gone negative on Obama has increased, Obama’s poll numbers have gone up and Hillary’s have gone down. This was true in Iowa, and to some extent in New Hampshire, at least until Hillary stopped the negatives and started touting her own record. Now, in South Carolina, the same trend line is repeating, as Hillary goes negative, Obama’s polling numbers go up. This is also being reflected in the national polls, where Obama was running flat against Hillary. Now Obama is headed up and Hillary is headed down.
Political Night Train believes these polling results are being reflected with the younger voters, especially among the younger, better educated black women, those under 45 with more than a high school education. This is a growing segment of the black population in general and has both economic, and now political clout.
Political Night Train believes the Clintons have made what may later turn out to be their fatal error of the campaign, going negative on Obama in what is now being perceived as racist. White Hillary supporters may begin to disengage her campaign, least they be branded racists along with Bill, Hillary and their other supporters. Except for the over 65 white women who don’t necessarily like Hillary, they just like Bill more.
As it is turning out, for some, and these will be different groups, neither Bill Clinton nor Obama is black enough for them.