Hillary Down, Obama Up In Iowa Poll

With just a few weeks to go, Iowa voters have responded to the polls and are now putting Obama at 28%, Hillary at 25% and Edwards at 23%.  This puts Edwards within striking distance of Hillary, forcing her to exit Iowa in 3rd place.  Hillary has slipped the most in recent pollings, from 30% to 25%, a 5 point drop, which for her position as front runner is significant.  And Oprah has not added her voice to the push for Obama. 

Here’s how Political Night Train sees a possible Iowa scenario – Obama and Oprah storm the state for the next four weeks with a positive only message.  Hillary continues to go negative on Obama, but runs into a snag since they cannot be seen going negative on Oprah.  Edwards hits hard at Hillary on experience and character, and Iraq war record.  Sensing a defeat, Hillary abandons Iowa in last weeks before caucus to focus on New Hampshire and South Carolina.  She sends Bill out to spin his message, but he sucks up all the oxygen in the room, leaving none for Hillary.  Bill still believes 2008 is all about Bill and sees Hillary as his own re-election proxy.  Hillary’s campaign may have to do damage control to counter some of Bill’s off-the-cuff comments.  If Hillary comes in 2nd or 3rd in Iowa, Obama and Oprah will continue the positive campaign in New Hampshire and South Carolina.  Oprah will ignore Hillary.  Edwards will continue to hammer Hillary and she will have to respond with more negative campaigning.  Also, expect the Clinton dirty tricks to continue, behind the scenes.  Don’t be surprised if there are stories about Obama, his wife and Oprah and their connection with their church in Chicago.  Don’t be surprised to see stories about how Michelle Obama has a chip on her shoulder for whites.

Democratic Debate Boo-Birds Revealed, Harry Reid To Blame?

The following was reported by a Nevada Democratic caucus blogger: The Reids (Senator Harry and son Rory, who is the Nevada Democratic Party chairman)  are at the top of an old-fashioned state political machine that displayed its effectiveness in delivering for Hillary last week at Thursday’s Democratic debate and the party’s Jefferson Jackson Dinner. The party machine provided an enthusiastically unrestrained audience for Hillary and a hostile environment for her principal opponents. It has been reported elsewhere how the booing during the debate came from the area occupied by Democratic Party ticket holders associated with Dina Titus, failed 2006 candidate for governor and an ardent Hillary backer. And these are the people with the greatest influence on organizing the party’s caucus in two months.

Obama and Edwards are against the Reid party machine in Nevada.

Nevada Democratic Caucus Looks Like Another Harry Reid Failure

Here are some numbers from the Research2000 poll of likely voters in Nevada, November 16-19:

70% of Democrats following the race now, with 30% “not too closely”.
19% of Democrats claim they will “definitely” caucus and 21% claim
they will “probably” do so. 60% are unlikely to caucus. Many in Nevada are new to the state, with a lot from California, and are not familiar with the caucus process, which in Nevada is complex.

In Iowa, a long time caucus state, only 15-20% of Democrats normally turn out.

One caucus blog is reporting that Hillary has overplayed her hand in Nevada by  pissing off a lot of grassroots volunteers.  The charge is that volunteers not approved by Hillary are being pushed aside as caucus chairs.  Nevada Democratic voters may be looking to throw their support to Obama or Edwards, because of the heavy-handed Clinton tactics.
Obama has the best grassroots effort going in Nevada with support from many of those that previously supported Bill Clinton and then Al Gore.
This was reported by one Nevada caucus blog, “At most party events, the Obama campaign has no tables, no signs and no visible staff presence.” Are the Obama workers, as the blogger states, “deliberately keeping their organization below the radar. Or is it restricted to the predominantly African-American “westside” and North Las Vegas?  Thats what the Democratic volunteers I talk to are thinking about.”

The blogger continues, “A variety of factors combine to make this state one of the most difficult places in the US to operate politically. In fact, one has to wonder whether the Democratic Party fully understood what it was agreeing to in August 2006, when it decided to anoint Nevada as an “early state”. Nevada is considered a “swing-state,” but except for Bill Clinton’s victories in 1992 and 1996, it voted Republican in every other Presidential election since 1980. Also, its current governor and junior senator are both Republicans. The tradition of political apathy fits neatly with the state’s economic mainstay. So, in gaming parlance, Nevada’s political elite, particularly Harry Reid and his son Rory, are playing “high stakes” with their state’s image and personal reputations. While the current odds do not favor Obama, in the end it may be his campaign that lends needed legitimacy to the Nevada caucus.  One objective, which the Party’s senior elected official Senator Harry Reid wants is to ensure a successful caucus that enhances Nevada’s political importance. A flawed caucus would seriously damage the national standing of both the Nevada Democratic Party and Harry Reid. And his image is already suffering from a less-than stellar record of achievement to date as leader of a majority in the Senate that failed to deliver on its 2006 election mandate.  The second objective is being pursued by Rory Reid, the senator’s son who is trying to carve out a larger space for himself in Nevada state politics (currently dominated by his father). Rory is State Campaign Chairman for Hillary Clinton, and his overriding objective is to get her elected. Rory Reid is ideally positioned as Commission Chairman for Clark County, home to most of the state’s population and the gaming industry centered in Las Vegas. He also perfectly epitomizes my theory that, in general (and with apologies to the many sincerely committed people with whom I worked in the Clinton Administration), Obama attracts idealists, while the Clintons attract opportunists.

The Nevada Democratic caucus could prove to be a national embarrassment to Harry Reid as he rolls the dice for greater national influence.  Prediction:  The Nevada caucus will be another Harry Reid failure, due to many new voters in Nevada, no history of strong caucus attendance, apathy, lack of overall caucus organization, a transient population, no sense of community.  Look for low turnout.  The state party has yet to name all the caucus polling sites!

Hillary Struggles With Image In Iowa

Today’s Wall Street Journal features a page-one story about Mr. Obama’s chief rival, Hillary Rodham Clinton. Her campaign is struggling to create a stronger, more likeable image in Iowa, the only state where they are neck and neck in the polls. Now, her party foes are nervous and even desperate as the days dwindle to the first, potentially make-or-break vote in Iowa, the only state where polls show a tight race. They are all firing at her, aiming where she is most vulnerable — her reputation as too cautious and calculating. As Iowa caucus goers watch and listen to Hillary, Obama and Edwards, they are forming opinions and because of how the caucus goers vote, the person in second place may wind up in first place.  As followers of the third, forth and fifth place candidates have to re-focus their caucus votes, if their candidate gets less than 15%, the person in second place may pick up the most of those votes.  This is why Barack Obama recently asked a Dodd supporter in Iowa if he could please be her second choice.

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/11/23/the-early-word-second-is-the-new-first-place/

Hillary, Obama & Edwards, Bad Blood Revisited

Here are a few of the not-so-nice assertions Democratic candidates made of one another during recent weeks in Iowa:

• Obama told a group of union leaders that Clinton and John Edwards’ past statements show they are inconsistent on labor issues. Staff for both Clinton and Edwards said Obama took the comments out of context. Edwards, for example, made statements regarding right-to-work laws in 1998 about North Carolina’s law and was not referring to national policy, his aides pointed out. Ultimately, members of United Auto Workers Region 4 recommended an Obama endorsement to their national council.

• Clinton criticized Obama’s statements that his experience living in Indonesia as a child would better prepare him to deal with foreign policy as president. She highlighted her own experiences, saying: “Now, voters will judge whether living in a foreign country at the age of 10 prepares one to face the big, complex international challenges we will face.”

• Edwards called Obama’s promise to bring change to Washington politics a “fantasy.” Edwards, while campaigning in eastern Iowa, said Obama’s goal to dull the power of lobbyist groups is misguided. “The notion that these entrenched interests are going to compromise away their powers is a fantasy,” Edwards said. An ABC News/Washington Post poll released in the past week showed Obama edging Clinton among likely Iowa caucus-goers by 30 percent to 26 percent. Edwards had 22 percent.

Hillary The Parser

By Patrick HealyFORT DODGE, Iowa – The curious relationship between Hillary Rodham Clinton, presidential candidate, and Rupert Murdoch, media baron, flashed briefly before the eyes of Iowans on Saturday night during a Clinton campaign event.A woman in the audience rose to ask Mrs. Clinton about Mr. Murdoch’s ownership of multiple media outlets (Fox News, the New York Post, soon the Wall Street Journal, and various other organs), and also whether Americans would “lose out democracy” if one person is in control of the media.And Mrs. Clinton played both sides in her answer, responding sympathetically to the woman’s concern about media consolidation, but also making clear that she wasn’t singling out “any company in particular” for condemnation.Once again, Hillary has parsed her words to fit both sides of an issue.

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/11/25/in-iowa-clinton-is-pressed-on-murdoch/index.html?hp

Hillary down, Obama Up In Iowa

Latest Washington Post-ABC poll in Iowa showing Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) in second place for the Democratic presidential nomination. Her rival, Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) led in the poll with 30 percent, Hillary trailed at 26 percent and former Sen. John Edwards (N.C.) was in third at 22 percent. New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, auditioning for vice president, was fourth at 11 percent. This is the first primary or caucus poll nationwide or in any state in the nation this entire year that shows Hillary in second place! Here’s the really bad news for Hillary:• Obama is running even with Hillary among Iowa women. With Oprah in Iowa, expect Obama’s numbers amoung women to increase.• 55 percent of Iowa Democrats want change , and Obama leads with 43 percent to Edwards’s 25 and Hillary’s 17 percent.  I expect that between now and the caucus, this percentage will reach 65% with Obama taking half.• Half of Hillary’s voters have not attended a previous caucus, versus 43 percent of Obama’s and 24 percent of Edwards’s.  The fewer first time caucus goers show up, because of weather, driving distance, schedule conflicts, the better for Obama. Obama’s numbers in Iowa are heading up, and Hillary’s numbers are heading down.  Enough to put her in third place?  Its possible.  Watch closely, if Hillary begins to taper off on her time in Iowa, or personal appearances, and begins to focus on New Hampshire, it’s a sure sign she has written Iowa off.

Hillary Accused Of Double-Talk

Hillary criticized for press strategyBy Christina Bellantoni
November 23, 2007 When Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton wants to get a message out, her presidential campaign handpicks news outlets. Or, in some cases, bypasses the media entirely. The New York Democrat’s third-quarter fundraising blowout was leaked to the Drudge Report. She made sure an Iowa newspaper printed her comments that she found Sen. Barack Obama’s answer to a foreign-policy question “irresponsible” and “naive.” She also uses her “Hillary Hub” campaign creation to break news. The strategy allows Mrs. Clinton — who rarely holds press availabilities — to avoid taking questions from reporters who cover her campaign and who might have detailed follow-up queries to her carefully planned policy announcements. Mrs. Clinton’s rivals for the Democratic presidential nomination have been painting her as someone who dodges tough questions or parses answers to difficult issues. Her opponents stepped up the pressure after it was revealed her campaign staff planted two questions with supporters at a campaign event. 

Former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina regularly accuses Mrs. Clinton of “double-talk,” and his campaign created a “Plants for Hillary” spoof Web site to highlight the issue.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071123/NATION/111230084/1001

  

New Poll Has Obama Leading Hillary

New ABC News/Washington Post poll that shows Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton by the narrowest of margins in Iowa. A July ABC/Post poll showed Obama ahead as well, but this poll is the first since a Newsweek survey in late September showed Obama leading. The cross-tabs shed light on why Obama may be ahead: Of the one-third in the poll who had met a candidate, more than half met Obama, as Ben Smith points out. Edwards has met 38% of that subsample to Clinton’s 36% and 22% for Bill Richardson.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/politics_nation/2007/11/morning_thoughts_obis_one.html

Edwards Most Electable – Hillary Most Objectionable

The analysts at PresidentElectionPolls.com went through the general election matchup polls and found that the most competitive Democratic candidate against the Republicans was John Edwards.

Washington D.C. (PRWEB) November 15, 2007 — PresidentElectionPolls.com recently published article entitled ‘John Edwards is the Most Electable Democrat’ finds that John Edwards is the most electable Democrat in a general election.

David Terr, PhD number theorist and graduate from UC Berkeley, says that the conclusions are based primarily on the numbers, “we have almost 250 polls involving a hypothetical election between Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton and she is consistently performing worse than Edwards is in those same polls.”

They argue that Hillary Clinton performs worse because of polls of Independents and Moderates that find her objectionable and have vowed to never support her — regardless of circumstance. “John Edwards does not suffer from such objection which is critical in a close election” says David Terr.

The data PresidentElectionPolls.com has used to come to their conclusions can be found at
http://www.presidentelectionpolls.com/2008/articles/john-edwards-is-the-most-electable-democrat.html

http://www.emediawire.com/releases/2007/11/emw563021.htm

# # #

Daily Kos poll on the Las Vegas Democratic Candidates debate

Daily Kos poll on the Las Vegas Democratic Candidates debate

If there were any doubts that going negative on Hillary is effective, look at the polling results from Kos.  When Kucinich looks better to liberals than Hillary, she is in real trouble.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/11/15/22252/245

Joe Biden	1114 votes – 9 %
Hillary Clinton	2491 votes – 20 %
Chris Dodd	389 votes – 3 %
John Edwards	1918 votes – 15 %
Dennis Kucinich	2746 votes – 22 %
Barack Obama	2945 votes – 24 %
Bill Richardson	401 votes – 3 %
12004 Total Votes

Obama, Edwards Attack On Hillary Effective

Many have questioned if going negative would have any effect on Hillary’s apparent nomination.  Dick Morris, who probably knows Hillary and Bill better than just about any other pundit, has this to say, “Months ago, Edwards was ahead, but Clinton had developed an increasing lead – until her recent dismal debate performance sent her fortunes diving.”  http://www.townhall.com/columnists/DickMorrisandEileenMcGann/2007/11/15/iowa_and_beyond_no_safe_bets_in_08

Now don’t thing for a minute that the result is all because of Obama and Edwards attacks, it isn’t, and here’s why.  Obama’s attacks are never carried to the degree needed to do lasting harm.  He just does not have the political killer instinct.  Edwards attacks are more agressive, and he is relentless.  But Edwards attacks from the trail lawyer angle, trying to prove the other person is guilty by pointing out negatives.  Neither has the unrelenting, attack from all sides and angles, get dirty killer instinct of successful politicians.

Many you have wondered, where are the “swift-boat” attacks on Hillary?  It’s too early.  Let Obama and Edwards do the light weight attacking and see if she survives Iowa.  Swift-boating won’t come until Hillary is the clear nomination.  Ads are being developed as we speak, based in part on some cleaver negative polling in Iowa to see what grabs the public.

Flap Jack of the Day Award Goes To: NY’s Gov. Spitzer

Flap Jack of the Day Award Goes To: Nancy Pelosi

Nancy Pelosi has flipped on her earlier position on the superdelegates.  Earlier Pelosi’s position was the superdelegates should vote with the popular vote.  Now Peolosi says the superdelegates should vote their conscience.

Iran Smoking Gun?? IAEA Finds Plans for Nuclear Weapons

Looking for the smoking gun?? Iran maintains it was given the papers without asking for them during its black market purchases of nuclear equipment decades ago . . . This just does not pass the “ho ho” test.  An the NY Times thinks this is simply a “gesture”.

Iran Hands Over Nuclear Blueprints Ahead of IAEA Report.   The AP (11/14, Jahn) reports, “Iran has met a key demand of the UN nuclear agency, handing over long-sought blueprints showing how to mold uranium metal into the shape of warheads, diplomats said Tuesday.” The decision was hailed by Western diplomats as a “concession designed to head off the threat of new UN sanctions.” The move comes as the IAEA finalizes its report to its board of governors next week. The AP reports that “While [IAEA chief Mohammed] ElBaradei is expected to say that Iran has improved its cooperation with his agency’s probe, the findings are unlikely to deter the United States, France and Britain from pushing for a third set of UN sanctions.”
      The New York Times (11/14, Sciolino, 1.18M) report on the blueprints called the handover a “gesture” saying, “Possession of the document is not expected to add much to the agency’s understanding of Iran’s nuclear history” and that “despite the latest gesture, Iran has failed to comply with a number of other demands by the agency under the timetable.”

This from Salon???? Queen Hillary’s Disruptive Court

This from Salon, that most liberal of publications????

“The press corps finally wakes up to her waffling and evasions. “

By Camille Paglia

http://www.salon.com/opinion/paglia/2007/11/14/hillary/?source=whitelist

Democrats Remain Stalled On Iraq Debate

 Score: Harry Reid Is 0 for 40!!

Democrats remain stalled on Iraq debate

By: Jim VandeHei and John F. Harris
Nov 13, 2007 06:07 AM EST

“As the congressional session lurches toward a close, Democrats are confronting some demoralizing arithmetic on Iraq.”  They are Zero for 40, a firing offense in the Majors.  The Yankees let Joe go, and he had a better record.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1107/6845.html

This from the folks that want you to put them in power next year.

CNN’s Wolf Blitzer Told Not To Ask Hillary Any “Russert Questions”

 Liberals eat their own, as they attack Tim Russert for his tought questions.  Now Blitzer draws Hillery’s ire.

CNN’s Wolf Blitzer has been warned not to focus Thursday’s Dem debate on Hillary. ‘This campaign is about issues, not on who we can bring down and destroy,’ top Clinton insider explains. ‘Blitzer should not go down to the levels of character attack and pull ‘a Russert.” Blitzer is set to moderate debate from Vegas, with questions also being posed by Suzanne Malveaux

Even Garry Trudeau’s Doonesbury Is Bashing Hillary

 I though I would never see this, Garry Trudeau bashing Hillary.  Get the full story and more at Human Events.

 Garry Trudeau has been just as relentlessly scathing in Doonesbury, the most liberal of liberal political cartoons. And National Public Radio — right up there with the New York Times as a mouthpiece for liberal elitism — slammed her for opportunism and insincerity.
This is the pantheon of left-wing press.

http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=23382

Who Wears the Apron, Hillary or Bill?

The negatives just keep piling on, and this from the liberal Boston Globe:

The Boston Globe’s Venocchi skewers Clinton’s “kitchen strategy.” “TAKE OFF that apron, Hillary. Democrats want a winning presidential candidate, not a gourmet cook.” Venocchi calls the women’s vote “famously fickle” and Clinton “already has a gender gap problem. More than half the married men in a new USA Today/Gallup Poll said they definitely wouldn’t vote for her.” She also cites Clinton’s lead shrinking in New Hampshire in the latest Marist poll from 21 points over Obama to 11 now.

Hillary’s Plant-Gate – Updated, It Won’t Go Away

The New York Times on Plant-gate: “At two campaign events in Iowa this year, aides to Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton encouraged audience members to ask her specific questions.

 It just won’t go away.  Who will Bill bash next?

GRINNELL, Iowa (CNN) — The college student who says she was told what question to ask at one of Sen. Hillary Clinton’s campaign events told CNN Monday that she wasn’t the only one at the event who was a plant and said “voters have the right to know what really happened.”http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2007/11/13/student-given-question-for-clinton-i-just-want-honesty/

In a later update, this particular college student told a reporter that severn other students were given “planted” questions to ask Hillary.  So much for it only happened once.  Is this Hillary’s “I didn’t inhale?”